fs2000.mod: provide actual replication
Closes https://git.dynare.org/Dynare/dynare/-/issues/1905mr#2177
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81cd0f1cb5
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@ -3,20 +3,20 @@
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* in the paper) described in Frank Schorfheide (2000): "Loss function-based
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* evaluation of DSGE models", Journal of Applied Econometrics, 15(6), 645-670.
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*
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* The data are in file "fsdat_simul.m", and have been artificially generated.
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* They are therefore different from the original dataset used by Schorfheide.
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* The data are taken from the replication package at
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* http://dx.doi.org/10.15456/jae.2022314.0708799949
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*
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* The prior distribution follows the one originally specified in Schorfheide's
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* paper, except for parameter rho. In the paper, the elicited beta prior for rho
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* paper. Note that the elicited beta prior for rho in the paper
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* implies an asymptote and corresponding prior mode at 0. It is generally
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* recommended to avoid this extreme type of prior. Some optimizers, for instance
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* mode_compute=12 (Mathworks' particleswarm algorithm) may find a posterior mode
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* with rho equal to zero. We lowered the value of the prior standard deviation
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* (changing .223 to .100) to remove the asymptote.
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* recommended to avoid this extreme type of prior.
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*
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* Because the data are already logged and we use the loglinear option to conduct
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* a full log-linearization, we need to use the logdata option.
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*
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* The equations are taken from J. Nason and T. Cogley (1994): "Testing the
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* implications of long-run neutrality for monetary business cycle models",
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* Journal of Applied Econometrics, 9, S37-S70.
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* Journal of Applied Econometrics, 9, S37-S70, NC in the following.
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* Note that there is an initial minus sign missing in equation (A1), p. S63.
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*
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* This implementation was originally written by Michel Juillard. Please note that the
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@ -25,7 +25,7 @@
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*/
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/*
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* Copyright © 2004-2017 Dynare Team
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* Copyright © 2004-2023 Dynare Team
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*
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* This file is part of Dynare.
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*
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@ -43,33 +43,71 @@
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* along with Dynare. If not, see <https://www.gnu.org/licenses/>.
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*/
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var m P c e W R k d n l gy_obs gp_obs y dA;
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varexo e_a e_m;
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var m ${m}$ (long_name='money growth')
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P ${P}$ (long_name='Price level')
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c ${c}$ (long_name='consumption')
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e ${e}$ (long_name='capital stock')
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W ${W}$ (long_name='Wage rate')
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R ${R}$ (long_name='interest rate')
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k ${k}$ (long_name='capital stock')
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d ${d}$ (long_name='dividends')
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n ${n}$ (long_name='labor')
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l ${l}$ (long_name='loans')
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gy_obs ${\Delta \ln GDP}$ (long_name='detrended capital stock')
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gp_obs ${\Delta \ln P}$ (long_name='detrended capital stock')
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y ${y}$ (long_name='detrended output')
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dA ${\Delta A}$ (long_name='TFP growth')
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;
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varexo e_a ${\epsilon_A}$ (long_name='TFP shock')
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e_m ${\epsilon_M}$ (long_name='Money growth shock')
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;
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parameters alp bet gam mst rho psi del;
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parameters alp ${\alpha}$ (long_name='capital share')
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bet ${\beta}$ (long_name='discount factor')
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gam ${\gamma}$ (long_name='long-run TFP growth')
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mst ${m^*}$ (long_name='long-run money growth')
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rho ${\rho}$ (long_name='autocorrelation money growth')
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phi ${\phi}$ (long_name='labor weight in consumption')
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del ${\delta}$ (long_name='depreciation rate')
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;
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% roughly picked values to allow simulating the model before estimation
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alp = 0.33;
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bet = 0.99;
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gam = 0.003;
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mst = 1.011;
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rho = 0.7;
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psi = 0.787;
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phi = 0.787;
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del = 0.02;
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model;
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[name='NC before eq. (1), TFP growth equation']
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dA = exp(gam+e_a);
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[name='NC eq. (2), money growth rate']
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log(m) = (1-rho)*log(mst) + rho*log(m(-1))+e_m;
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[name='NC eq. (A1), Euler equation']
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-P/(c(+1)*P(+1)*m)+bet*P(+1)*(alp*exp(-alp*(gam+log(e(+1))))*k^(alp-1)*n(+1)^(1-alp)+(1-del)*exp(-(gam+log(e(+1)))))/(c(+2)*P(+2)*m(+1))=0;
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[name='NC below eq. (A1), firm borrowing constraint']
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W = l/n;
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-(psi/(1-psi))*(c*P/(1-n))+l/n = 0;
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[name='NC eq. (A2), intratemporal labour market condition']
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-(phi/(1-phi))*(c*P/(1-n))+l/n = 0;
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[name='NC below eq. (A2), credit market clearing']
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R = P*(1-alp)*exp(-alp*(gam+e_a))*k(-1)^alp*n^(-alp)/W;
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[name='NC eq. (A3), credit market optimality']
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1/(c*P)-bet*P*(1-alp)*exp(-alp*(gam+e_a))*k(-1)^alp*n^(1-alp)/(m*l*c(+1)*P(+1)) = 0;
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[name='NC eq. (18), aggregate resource constraint']
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c+k = exp(-alp*(gam+e_a))*k(-1)^alp*n^(1-alp)+(1-del)*exp(-(gam+e_a))*k(-1);
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[name='NC eq. (19), money market condition']
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P*c = m;
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[name='NC eq. (20), credit market equilibrium condition']
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m-1+d = l;
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[name='Definition TFP shock']
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e = exp(e_a);
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[name='Implied by NC eq. (18), production function']
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y = k(-1)^alp*n^(1-alp)*exp(-alp*(gam+e_a));
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[name='Observation equation GDP growth']
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gy_obs = dA*y/y(-1);
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[name='Observation equation price level']
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gp_obs = (P/P(-1))*m(-1)/dA;
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end;
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@ -84,12 +122,12 @@ steady_state_model;
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m = mst;
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khst = ( (1-gst*bet*(1-del)) / (alp*gst^alp*bet) )^(1/(alp-1));
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xist = ( ((khst*gst)^alp - (1-gst*(1-del))*khst)/mst )^(-1);
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nust = psi*mst^2/( (1-alp)*(1-psi)*bet*gst^alp*khst^alp );
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nust = phi*mst^2/( (1-alp)*(1-phi)*bet*gst^alp*khst^alp );
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n = xist/(nust+xist);
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P = xist + nust;
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k = khst*n;
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l = psi*mst*n/( (1-psi)*(1-n) );
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l = phi*mst*n/( (1-phi)*(1-n) );
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c = mst/P;
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d = l - mst + 1;
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y = k^alp*n^(1-alp)*gst^alp;
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@ -104,17 +142,18 @@ steady_state_model;
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gy_obs = dA;
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end;
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steady;
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steady;
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check;
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% Table 1 of Schorfheide (2000)
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estimated_params;
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alp, beta_pdf, 0.356, 0.02;
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bet, beta_pdf, 0.993, 0.002;
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gam, normal_pdf, 0.0085, 0.003;
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mst, normal_pdf, 1.0002, 0.007;
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rho, beta_pdf, 0.129, 0.100;
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psi, beta_pdf, 0.65, 0.05;
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rho, beta_pdf, 0.129, 0.223;
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phi, beta_pdf, 0.65, 0.05;
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del, beta_pdf, 0.01, 0.005;
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stderr e_a, inv_gamma_pdf, 0.035449, inf;
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stderr e_m, inv_gamma_pdf, 0.008862, inf;
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@ -122,14 +161,8 @@ end;
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varobs gp_obs gy_obs;
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estimation(order=1, datafile=fsdat_simul, nobs=192, loglinear, mh_replic=2000, mh_nblocks=2, mh_jscale=0.8, mode_check);
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estimation(order=1, datafile=fs2000_data, loglinear,logdata, mh_replic=2000, mh_nblocks=2, mh_jscale=0.8, mode_check);
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/*
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* The following lines were used to generate the data file. If you want to
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* generate another random data file, comment the "estimation" line and uncomment
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* the following lines.
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*/
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//stoch_simul(periods=200, order=1);
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//datatomfile('fsdat_simul', {'gy_obs', 'gp_obs'});
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%uncomment the following lines to generate LaTeX-code of the model equations
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%write_latex_original_model(write_equation_tags);
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%collect_latex_files;
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@ -0,0 +1,215 @@
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%This file is a direct Matlab implementation of the loaddata.g and data.prn files
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%of Schorfheide, Frank (2000): Loss function-based evaluation of DSGE models
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%(replication data). Version: 1. Journal of Applied Econometrics. Dataset.
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%http://dx.doi.org/10.15456/jae.2022314.0708799949
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% Copyright: 2000-2022 Frank Schorfheide
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% Copyright: 2023 Dynare Team
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% License: CC BY 4.0
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% (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/legalcode)
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% Time series, extracted 05/04/00
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% columms are quarterly data from 1949:IV to 1997:IV
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% 1: GDPD = GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT:IMPLICIT PRICE DEFLATOR (INDEX,92=100)(T7.1)
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% 2: GDPQ = GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT
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% 3: GPOP = POPULATION, NIPA basis (THOUS.,NSA)
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data_q=[18.02 1474.5 150.2
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17.94 1538.2 150.9
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18.01 1584.5 151.4
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18.42 1644.1 152
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18.73 1678.6 152.7
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19.46 1693.1 153.3
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19.55 1724 153.9
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19.56 1758.2 154.7
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19.79 1760.6 155.4
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19.77 1779.2 156
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19.82 1778.8 156.6
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20.03 1790.9 157.3
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20.12 1846 158
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20.1 1882.6 158.6
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20.14 1897.3 159.2
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20.22 1887.4 160
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20.27 1858.2 160.7
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20.34 1849.9 161.4
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20.39 1848.5 162
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20.42 1868.9 162.8
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20.47 1905.6 163.6
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20.56 1959.6 164.3
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20.62 1994.4 164.9
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20.78 2020.1 165.7
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21 2030.5 166.5
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21.2 2023.6 167.2
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21.33 2037.7 167.9
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21.62 2033.4 168.7
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21.71 2066.2 169.5
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22.01 2077.5 170.2
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22.15 2071.9 170.9
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22.27 2094 171.7
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22.29 2070.8 172.5
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22.56 2012.6 173.1
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22.64 2024.7 173.8
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22.77 2072.3 174.5
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22.88 2120.6 175.3
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22.92 2165 176.045
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22.91 2223.3 176.727
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22.94 2221.4 177.481
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23.03 2230.95 178.268
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23.13 2279.22 179.694
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23.22 2265.48 180.335
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23.32 2268.29 181.094
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23.4 2238.57 181.915
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23.45 2251.68 182.634
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23.51 2292.02 183.337
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23.56 2332.61 184.103
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23.63 2381.01 184.894
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23.75 2422.59 185.553
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23.81 2448.01 186.203
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23.87 2471.86 186.926
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23.94 2476.67 187.68
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24 2508.7 188.299
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24.07 2538.05 188.906
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24.12 2586.26 189.631
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24.29 2604.62 190.362
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24.35 2666.69 190.954
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24.41 2697.54 191.56
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24.52 2729.63 192.256
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24.64 2739.75 192.938
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24.77 2808.88 193.467
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24.88 2846.34 193.994
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25.01 2898.79 194.647
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25.17 2970.48 195.279
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25.32 3042.35 195.763
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25.53 3055.53 196.277
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25.79 3076.51 196.877
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26.02 3102.36 197.481
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26.14 3127.15 197.967
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26.31 3129.53 198.455
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26.6 3154.19 199.012
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26.9 3177.98 199.572
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27.21 3236.18 199.995
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27.49 3292.07 200.452
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27.75 3316.11 200.997
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28.12 3331.22 201.538
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28.39 3381.86 201.955
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28.73 3390.23 202.419
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29.14 3409.65 202.986
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29.51 3392.6 203.584
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29.94 3386.49 204.086
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30.36 3391.61 204.721
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30.61 3422.95 205.419
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31.02 3389.36 206.13
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31.5 3481.4 206.763
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31.93 3500.95 207.362
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32.27 3523.8 208
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32.54 3533.79 208.642
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33.02 3604.73 209.142
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33.2 3687.9 209.637
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33.49 3726.18 210.181
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33.95 3790.44 210.737
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34.36 3892.22 211.192
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34.94 3919.01 211.663
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35.61 3907.08 212.191
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36.29 3947.11 212.708
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37.01 3908.15 213.144
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37.79 3922.57 213.602
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38.96 3879.98 214.147
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40.13 3854.13 214.7
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41.05 3800.93 215.135
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41.66 3835.21 215.652
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42.41 3907.02 216.289
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43.19 3952.48 216.848
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43.69 4044.59 217.314
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44.15 4072.19 217.776
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44.77 4088.49 218.338
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45.57 4126.39 218.917
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46.32 4176.28 219.427
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47.07 4260.08 219.956
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47.66 4329.46 220.573
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48.63 4328.33 221.201
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49.42 4345.51 221.719
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50.41 4510.73 222.281
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51.27 4552.14 222.933
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52.35 4603.65 223.583
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53.51 4605.65 224.152
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54.65 4615.64 224.737
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55.82 4644.93 225.418
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56.92 4656.23 226.117
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58.18 4678.96 226.754
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59.55 4566.62 227.389
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61.01 4562.25 228.07
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62.59 4651.86 228.689
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64.15 4739.16 229.155
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65.37 4696.82 229.674
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66.65 4753.02 230.301
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67.87 4693.76 230.903
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68.86 4615.89 231.395
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69.72 4634.88 231.906
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70.66 4612.08 232.498
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71.44 4618.26 233.074
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72.08 4662.97 233.546
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72.83 4763.57 234.028
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73.48 4849 234.603
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74.19 4939.23 235.153
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75.02 5053.56 235.605
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75.58 5132.87 236.082
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76.25 5170.34 236.657
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76.81 5203.68 237.232
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77.63 5257.26 237.673
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78.25 5283.73 238.176
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78.76 5359.6 238.789
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79.45 5393.57 239.387
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79.81 5460.83 239.861
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80.22 5466.95 240.368
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80.84 5496.29 240.962
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81.45 5526.77 241.539
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82.09 5561.8 242.009
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82.68 5618 242.52
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83.33 5667.39 243.12
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84.09 5750.57 243.721
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84.67 5785.29 244.208
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85.56 5844.05 244.716
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86.66 5878.7 245.354
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87.44 5952.83 245.966
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88.45 6010.96 246.46
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89.39 6055.61 247.017
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90.13 6087.96 247.698
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90.88 6093.51 248.374
|
||||
92 6152.59 248.928
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93.18 6171.57 249.564
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94.14 6142.1 250.299
|
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95.11 6078.96 251.031
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||||
96.27 6047.49 251.65
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97 6074.66 252.295
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97.7 6090.14 253.033
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98.31 6105.25 253.743
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99.13 6175.69 254.338
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99.79 6214.22 255.032
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100.17 6260.74 255.815
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100.88 6327.12 256.543
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101.84 6327.93 257.151
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102.35 6359.9 257.785
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102.83 6393.5 258.516
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103.51 6476.86 259.191
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104.13 6524.5 259.738
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104.71 6600.31 260.351
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105.39 6629.47 261.04
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106.09 6688.61 261.692
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106.75 6717.46 262.236
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107.24 6724.2 262.847
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107.75 6779.53 263.527
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108.29 6825.8 264.169
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108.91 6882 264.681
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109.24 6983.91 265.258
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109.74 7020 265.887
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110.23 7093.12 266.491
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111 7166.68 266.987
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111.43 7236.5 267.545
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111.76 7311.24 268.171
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112.08 7364.63 268.815];
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%Compute growth rates: from 1950:I to 1997:IV
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gy_obs=1000*data_q(:,2)./data_q(:,3); %real GDP per capita
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gy_obs=diff(log(gy_obs));
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gp_obs = diff(log(data_q(:,1))); %GDP deflator inflation
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@ -245,6 +245,11 @@ Copyright: 2005-2010 Pascal Getreuer
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2017 Dynare Team
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License: BSD-2-clause
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Files: examples/fs2000_data.m
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Copyright: 2000-2022 Frank Schorfheide
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Copyright: 2023 Dynare Team
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License: CC-BY-SA-4.0
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Files: doc/*.rst doc/*.tex doc/*.svg doc/*.pdf doc/*.bib
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Copyright: 1996-2022 Dynare Team
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License: GFDL-NIV-1.3+
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Reference in New Issue