Merge branch 'bound_documentation'
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@ -4353,10 +4353,20 @@ Specifies a starting value for the posterior mode optimizer or the
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maximum likelihood estimation. If unset, defaults to the prior mean.
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maximum likelihood estimation. If unset, defaults to the prior mean.
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@item @var{LOWER_BOUND}
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@item @var{LOWER_BOUND}
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Specifies a lower bound for the parameter value in maximum likelihood estimation
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@anchor{lower_bound} Specifies a lower bound for the parameter value in maximum
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likelihood estimation. In a Bayesian estimation context, sets a lower bound
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only effective while maximizing the posterior kernel. This lower bound does not
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modify the shape of the prior density, and is only aimed at helping the
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optimizer in identifying the posterior mode (no consequences for the MCMC). For
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some prior densities (namely inverse gamma, gamma, uniform or beta) it is
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possible to shift the default lower bound (zero) on the left or the right using
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@ref{prior_3rd_parameter}. In this case the prior density is effectively
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modified (note that the truncated Gaussian density is not implemented in
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Dynare). If unset, defaults to minus infinity (ML) or the natural lower bound
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of the prior (Bayesian estimation).
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@item @var{UPPER_BOUND}
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@item @var{UPPER_BOUND}
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Specifies an upper bound for the parameter value in maximum likelihood estimation
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Same as @ref{lower_bound}, but specifying an upper bound instead.
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@item @var{PRIOR_SHAPE}
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@item @var{PRIOR_SHAPE}
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A keyword specifying the shape of the prior density.
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A keyword specifying the shape of the prior density.
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@ -4368,16 +4378,18 @@ that @code{inv_gamma_pdf} is equivalent to
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@code{inv_gamma1_pdf}
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@code{inv_gamma1_pdf}
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@item @var{PRIOR_MEAN}
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@item @var{PRIOR_MEAN}
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The mean of the prior distribution
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@anchor{prior_mean} The mean of the prior distribution
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@item @var{PRIOR_STANDARD_ERROR}
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@item @var{PRIOR_STANDARD_ERROR}
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The standard error of the prior distribution
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@anchor{prior_standard_error} The standard error of the prior distribution
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@item @var{PRIOR_3RD_PARAMETER}
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@item @var{PRIOR_3RD_PARAMETER}
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@anchor{prior_3rd_parameter}
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A third parameter of the prior used for generalized beta distribution,
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A third parameter of the prior used for generalized beta distribution,
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generalized gamma and for the uniform distribution. Default: @code{0}
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generalized gamma and for the uniform distribution. Default: @code{0}
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@item @var{PRIOR_4TH_PARAMETER}
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@item @var{PRIOR_4TH_PARAMETER}
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@anchor{prior_4th_parameter}
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A fourth parameter of the prior used for generalized beta distribution
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A fourth parameter of the prior used for generalized beta distribution
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and for the uniform distribution. Default: @code{1}
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and for the uniform distribution. Default: @code{1}
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@ -5731,16 +5743,29 @@ estimates using a higher tapering are usually more reliable.
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@deffn Command model_comparison @var{FILENAME}[(@var{DOUBLE})]@dots{};
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@deffn Command model_comparison @var{FILENAME}[(@var{DOUBLE})]@dots{};
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@deffnx Command model_comparison (marginal_density = laplace | modifiedharmonicmean) @var{FILENAME}[(@var{DOUBLE})]@dots{};
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@deffnx Command model_comparison (marginal_density = laplace | modifiedharmonicmean) @var{FILENAME}[(@var{DOUBLE})]@dots{};
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@anchor{model_comparison}
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@descriptionhead
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@descriptionhead
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This command computes odds ratios and estimate a posterior density
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This command computes odds ratios and estimate a posterior density over a
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over a collection of models
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collection of models (see e.g. @cite{Koop (2003), Ch. 1}). The priors over
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(see e.g. @cite{Koop (2003), Ch. 1}). The priors over models can be specified
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models can be specified as the @var{DOUBLE} values, otherwise a uniform prior
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as the @var{DOUBLE} values, otherwise a uniform prior over all models is assumed.
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over all models is assumed. In contrast to frequentist econometrics, the
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In contrast to frequentist econometrics, the models to be compared do not need to be nested.
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models to be compared do not need to be nested. However, as the computation of
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However, as the computation of posterior odds ratios is a Bayesian technique,
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posterior odds ratios is a Bayesian technique, the comparison of models
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the comparison of models estimated with maximum likelihood is not supported.
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estimated with maximum likelihood is not supported.
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It is important to keep in mind that model comparison of this type is only
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valid with proper priors. If the prior does not integrate to one for all
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compared models, the comparison is not valid. This may be the case if part of
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the prior mass is implicitly truncated because Blanchard and Kahn conditions
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(instability or indeterminacy of the model) are not fulfilled, or because for
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some regions of the parameters space the deterministic steady state is
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undefined (or Dynare is unable to find it). The compared marginal densities
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should be renormalized by the effective prior mass, but this not done by
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Dynare: it is the user's responsibility to make sure that model comparison is
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based on proper priors. Note that, for obvious reasons, this is not an issue if
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the compared marginal densities are based on Laplace approximations.
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@examplehead
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@examplehead
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